More Jollies

[Passing Time]

7 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

The real question is whether we should send 2112 off on a course to learn how to do links.  Anyway here's the article and the picture of something that happened over three weeks ago (IOM Newspapers are nothing if not up to date):

As I said, these things are almost entirely ritual and those attending aren't even 'new' members of Tynwald - all have been there for for at least a year, some two or more.

AKA - A Jolly...

[CallMeCurious]

On 11/8/2022 at 12:22 PM, Roger Mexico said:

Certainly still a lot of business links though Brexit has chipped away a bit at those, look at John's comments on the increase in direct ferries from Ireland to the EU.  And the recent UK Census shows the decline in the numbers of Irish-born in Britain.  But the idea that the Irish or even a substantial number of them dislike Europe (and by implication have a secret desire to get back in the arms of Mummy England) is a fantasy of Telegraph readers (and especially writers) and the like.

The latest Eurobarometer survey  [downloads] shows that 58% of Irish respondents trust the EU (a higher figure than trust their own institutions and higher than the EU average) and that there is 90% support for A European economic and monetary union with one single currency, the euro.  Only 5% are against

Hardly suprising Irish GDP per capita is double that of UK. While average wage is comparable this means Ireland has a more productive workforce which is likely down to it's redevelopment with EU grants into the tech sector. A lot more opportunities for younger generation to stay and earn a decent living than emigrate into lower tier jobs.

Much like McCranky, they kept having referendums until they voted the right way Treaty of Nice 2001 (rejected), Treaty of Nice 2002 (approved), Lisbon Treaty 2008 (rejected) and Lisobon Treaty 2009 (approved). Though to be fair they've had a lot of referendums on domestic stuff like marriage, divorce and blasphemy.

 

[John Wright]

On 11/27/2022 at 6:53 PM, CallMeCurious said:

Hardly suprising Irish GDP per capita is double that of UK. While average wage is comparable this means Ireland has a more productive workforce which is likely down to it's redevelopment with EU grants into the tech sector. A lot more opportunities for younger generation to stay and earn a decent living than emigrate into lower tier jobs.

Much like McCranky, they kept having referendums until they voted the right way Treaty of Nice 2001 (rejected), Treaty of Nice 2002 (approved), Lisbon Treaty 2008 (rejected) and Lisobon Treaty 2009 (approved). Though to be fair they've had a lot of referendums on domestic stuff like marriage, divorce and blasphemy.

 

Except, for Ireland, GDP isn’t a measure of anything meaningful.

The huge GDP per capita is caused by the favourable tax treatment of multinationals which attracts them to locate their EU HQ in Ireland and book profits there by artificial invoicing or IP licensing from Dublin. 

The money doesn’t actually trickle down to ordinary tax payers, real wages after tax a contributions are much the same. Housing costs are horrendous. It’s nothing to do with productivity ( there isn’t all that much difference ).

[woolley]

On 11/6/2022 at 12:35 PM, A fool and his money..... said:

But we own a ferry company with a newly acquired freight ship and a soon to be expanded fleet of ferries. The transport links are almost entirely within our control.

I'm not suggesting we cut ties with the UK entirely, merely saying there would be undoubted advantages in aligning ourselves with Ireland. It's part of a common travel are which includes both ourselves and the UK, you can travel to Ireland without passport control presently, why would travelling to the UK be any different if we aligned with Ireland?

For me the two main problems with our attachment to the UK are, the millions we pay them for "defence" despite the fact they've never defended us against anything nor are they likely to - instead they spend the money on frequent involvement in foreign conflicts with which I don't agree and have no democratic input.

And Brexit- five years ago I could travel or work within the EU for as long as I liked - now it's 3 months max, then I have to leave for three months before I can return. I had no democratic say in this decision and I don't believe such curtailment of personal freedoms is befitting of a 21st century democracy, it's not progressive or something to aspire two.

Both these problems would be solved by aligning with the ROI rather than the UK. It makes sense in many other ways too. I know it wouldn't be without its challenges and would take a bit of effort but I don't see that as a reason to dismiss it out of hand. Sadly I don't believe it will ever happen - our politicians lack the imagination, drive and wit to make it happen, also I think too many British egos within our political and civil service would be bruised. The idea that a world exists beyond the UK is an alien notion to many.

Apart from the gaping holes highlighted by others, this won't ever happen because of realpolitik. The reason we were able to have the relationship with the UK as an EU member and the IOM as its once removed associate, maintaining our own system of taxation and operating a tax haven outside the bloc was because the EU/EEC wanted the UK as a member. Simple as that. It's a massive state incorporating the world's largest finance centre and, most importantly, a big budget contributor. The Island (and the other UK dependencies) were granted their status against this backdrop because the EU was prepared to acquiesce to get what it wanted. The City of London in one way or another sustains our finance centre. It means something in the world. it gives us kudos.

So swap that for an association with Ireland. Well, Brussels is not going to have it for a start. As far as the EU is concerned, they don't like tax havens. Well, not ones beyond their control at least, so Ireland, not a massive budget contributor, will have to do as it's told. Also Dublin isn't London, so where does that leave our main USP? It leaves it nowhere. Non-starter.

[A fool and his money.....]

24 minutes ago, woolley said:

Apart from the gaping holes highlighted by others, this won't ever happen because of realpolitik. The reason we were able to have the relationship with the UK as an EU member and the IOM as its once removed associate, maintaining our own system of taxation and operating a tax haven outside the bloc was because the EU/EEC wanted the UK as a member. Simple as that. It's a massive state incorporating the world's largest finance centre and, most importantly, a big budget contributor. The Island (and the other UK dependencies) were granted their status against this backdrop because the EU was prepared to acquiesce to get what it wanted. The City of London in one way or another sustains our finance centre. It means something in the world. it gives us kudos.

So swap that for an association with Ireland. Well, Brussels is not going to have it for a start. As far as the EU is concerned, they don't like tax havens. Well, not ones beyond their control at least, so Ireland, not a massive budget contributor, will have to do as it's told. Also Dublin isn't London, so where does that leave our main USP? It leaves it nowhere. Non-starter.

You may well be right, but is being a tax haven still working for us? It may have done for a while, but where are we now after 40 odd years of it? Is it going to sustain us into the future? I get that some people do very well out of it, the island as a whole though, I'm not so sure.

What is beyond doubt is that the island has and continues to sacrifice much to be a tax haven. If you're suggesting that we have no choice but to sacrifice democracy on fundamental decisions in order to carry it on then I for one don't believe it's worth it. It's not as if we haven't given it a chance, but the increasingly popular food banks, the striking key workers, the health service waiting lists, the crumbling roads, the inability of our young people to afford housing, chronic labour shortages, non-existent switch to renewable energy etc etc etc, would suggest that it isn't working particularly well.

If our old and tried "USP" isn't supporting us and is restricting us as you suggest, then perhaps we need a new one.

[A fool and his money.....]

10 hours ago, John Wright said:

Except, for Ireland, GDP isn’t a measure of anything meaningful.

The huge GDP per capita is caused by the favourable tax treatment of multinationals which attracts them to locate their EU HQ in Ireland and book profits there by artificial invoicing or IP licensing from Dublin. 

The money doesn’t actually trickle down to ordinary tax payers, real wages after tax a contributions are much the same. Housing costs are horrendous. It’s nothing to do with productivity ( there isn’t all that much difference ).

GDP isn't a measure of anything meaningful anywhere, least of all the IOM.

[woolley]

11 minutes ago, A fool and his money..... said:

You may well be right, but is being a tax haven still working for us? It may have done for a while, but where are we now after 40 odd years of it? Is it going to sustain us into the future? I get that some people do very well out of it, the island as a whole though, I'm not so sure.

What is beyond doubt is that the island has and continues to sacrifice much to be a tax haven. If you're suggesting that we have no choice but to sacrifice democracy on fundamental decisions in order to carry it on then I for one don't believe it's worth it. It's not as if we haven't given it a chance, but the increasingly popular food banks, the striking key workers, the health service waiting lists, the crumbling roads, the inability of our young people to afford housing, chronic labour shortages, non-existent switch to renewable energy etc etc etc, would suggest that it isn't working particularly well.

If our old and tried "USP" isn't supporting us and is restricting us as you suggest, then perhaps we need a new one.

All right. I hear you, but aside from a little tourism and high tech manufacture, pretty much all economic activity here is built upon the finance centre and serving the finance centre and those who man it. That's a fact. Take it away and I can't think of what we replace that with to sustain anything like the present population, let alone the gargantuan government. Can you?

[cissolt]

19 minutes ago, woolley said:

All right. I hear you, but aside from a little tourism and high tech manufacture, pretty much all economic activity here is built upon the finance centre and serving the finance centre and those who man it. That's a fact. Take it away and I can't think of what we replace that with to sustain anything like the present population, let alone the gargantuan government. Can you?

What % of GDP is finance?  8?

https://www.gov.im/about-the-government/departments/cabinet-office/statistics-isle-of-man/national-income/

 

We seem to be missing the 2020-2021 report.

 

[Twitch]

6 minutes ago, cissolt said:

What % of GDP is finance?  8?

https://www.gov.im/about-the-government/departments/cabinet-office/statistics-isle-of-man/national-income/

 

We seem to be missing the 2020-2021 report.

 

Financial services as a sector includes insurance and banking, so the sector is more like a third of economy. Way more people employed in it than the government worshipped 'digital sectors'.

[A fool and his money.....]

30 minutes ago, woolley said:

All right. I hear you, but aside from a little tourism and high tech manufacture, pretty much all economic activity here is built upon the finance centre and serving the finance centre and those who man it. That's a fact. Take it away and I can't think of what we replace that with to sustain anything like the present population, let alone the gargantuan government. Can you?

Well you don't do it overnight, but it does require some political will, effort, bravery and imagination.

We potentially have a lot going for us economically. For one we have our size. We're tiny, we only need a very small share of any particular industry to sustain us, we don't need to be unique.

Secondly is our people. We are an extremely law abiding, politically stable people who just get on with it. Whinging on MF is about as radical as it gets here. We've lived in a highly inequitable society for 40 years because we've been told it's good for us.

We have the natural resources of the future in abundance. Wind, tides, sunshine, hills, rainfall,  we have it all in very close proximity. We should at the very least be an international test site for renewable technology. Given we also have central government planning control we could already be a world leader in the exploitation of renewables as well as a major exporter. At the very least we should be wholly self sufficient energy-wise.

But nothing has been done. As you say, government's idea of diversifying the economy is to introduce different types of tax dodging. Sooner or later we're going to have to face the fact that our cash cow is dying. Tax justice is ever more important in the world, our relationship with the EU has been diminished, importing more people won't fix our woes. Necessity is the mother of invention, but these things take time, better start now before we're even more impoverished.

[Passing Time]

50 minutes ago, A fool and his money..... said:

Well you don't do it overnight, but it does require some political will, effort, bravery and imagination.

 

You pretty much summed up why it won't happen. I really can't recall when we last had a government with those characteristics

[Non-Believer]

10 minutes ago, Passing Time said:

You pretty much summed up why it won't happen. I really can't recall when we last had a government with those characteristics

That's because you don't need them when you get half a billion spons dumped in your account, gratis, every year. 

[CallMeCurious]

1 hour ago, A fool and his money..... said:

Well you don't do it overnight, but it does require some political will, effort, bravery and imagination.

We potentially have a lot going for us economically. For one we have our size. We're tiny, we only need a very small share of any particular industry to sustain us, we don't need to be unique.

Secondly is our people. We are an extremely law abiding, politically stable people who just get on with it. Whinging on MF is about as radical as it gets here. We've lived in a highly inequitable society for 40 years because we've been told it's good for us.

We have the natural resources of the future in abundance. Wind, tides, sunshine, hills, rainfall,  we have it all in very close proximity. We should at the very least be an international test site for renewable technology. Given we also have central government planning control we could already be a world leader in the exploitation of renewables as well as a major exporter. At the very least we should be wholly self sufficient energy-wise.

But nothing has been done. As you say, government's idea of diversifying the economy is to introduce different types of tax dodging. Sooner or later we're going to have to face the fact that our cash cow is dying. Tax justice is ever more important in the world, our relationship with the EU has been diminished, importing more people won't fix our woes. Necessity is the mother of invention, but these things take time, better start now before we're even more impoverished.

Don't foget gas. And the windfarms that will blockade us.

it does require some political will, effort, bravery and imagination. How about skill, experience and competence? Look where Pinewood and the Manx Hollywood got us.   

Geriatirc tourism won't last as that seems to be based on the return of northerners who used to come for family holidays in the heyday. They will fade away as the Costa holiday brigade replace them. 

Maybe we could fill all our hotels year round with no advertising at the UK taxpayers expense like Skegness.  

 

[Apple]

1 hour ago, A fool and his money..... said:

We've lived in a highly inequitable society for 40 years because we've been told it's good for us.

 

I believe that as been the case. No-one is forced to live here. For the last 40 years the benefits have outweighed costs for many people. The developments in such a short space of time has really been impressive.

1 hour ago, A fool and his money..... said:

As you say, government's idea of diversifying the economy is to introduce different types of tax dodging. Sooner or later we're going to have to face the fact that our cash cow is dying. Tax justice is ever more important in the world, our relationship with the EU has been diminished, importing more people won't fix our woes. Necessity is the mother of invention, but these things take time, better start now before we're even more impoverished.

The tax dodgers will usually eventually get caught out as tax regimes, regulations and pressures to reform and conform to a unified or global approach will increase. As it should perhaps.

No-one though on the island, or in the UK, talks about the black economy. It exists, is very influential and is really a big gap in our tax revenue. What is the impact on our economy is a question no-one seems to ask. Some would say it is rife here, cash in hand jobs etc but is it ever measured. 

The point about cash cows is right and action needs to be considered sooner rather than later. From what I hear the contemplation for job losses to some businesses we though untouchable is now being underway, and with some gusto.

[woolley]

2 hours ago, cissolt said:

What % of GDP is finance?  8?

https://www.gov.im/about-the-government/departments/cabinet-office/statistics-isle-of-man/national-income/

 

We seem to be missing the 2020-2021 report.

 

That's quite meaningless, really, other than for appearances. As I said earlier, practically all of the economic activity on the Island, save for a little tourism and high tech (niche precision engineering, meds, biotech etc.), is predicated on the tax haven. You can include the large government share of GDP in that as well. The fabric of our society is built upon it and paid for by it. Ask yourself where all of the people you know work. Mainly government or finance in one form or another.

Edited November 30, 2022 by woolley