Chris Thomas MHK sacked from DOI

[offshoremanxman]

1 minute ago, Non-Believer said:

Which is namely, the conduct of that collection of arseholes that he was supposed to be heading.

I never understand why the Minister is required to always support the department anyway. It seems pointless to expect someone to stand up there and read out some load of old shite that’s been drafted up by some incompetent like you actually believe it. It just undermines any credibility a person might have. 

[The Phantom]

4 minutes ago, offshoremanxman said:

I never understand why the Minister is required to always support the department anyway. It seems pointless to expect someone to stand up there and read out some load of old shite that’s been drafted up by some incompetent like you actually believe it. It just undermines any credibility a person might have. 

Exactly; especially when it's common knowledge that they have been brought in to try and solve the problems that everyone knows exists.  Then suddenly within a couple of weeks, they are proclaiming there are no problems. 

Personally I'd accept an honest "It's shit, I'm working on it, but it's going to take some time" as the response to everything for about 6 months, but would need to see some sort of change after that. 

[Nish as reesht]

Alf 'taking back control' seems to be in essence all about him wanting to progress Crogga gas exploration without the currently mandated checks for the protection of the environment.

According to Gef (https://gef.im/news/politics/cannan-to-rule-on-crogga-licence-37633/), CT wanted to stick to the license conditions granted to Crogga, but the company wanted to amend it. It seems Alf wants to vary the license despite the Government and its professionally-hired consultants / advisers (and the former minister CT) recommending sticking to the original terms (according to CT in Tynwald today). Says Gef:

"In essence, the issue is surrounding Crogga’s’ bid to alter the terms of the licence which required 3D seismic surveys to be completed before drilling could commence. The company’s CEO Richard Hubbard has claimed this is not necessary and that Crogga’s plans should be allowed to continue to the next phase."

So, Crogga want to do exploratory drilling before doing a full 3D seismic survey. It seems to me a case of business interests trumping due process.

The Manx Geological Survey (https://www.manxgeology.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Crogga-112-25-technical-summary-for-publication-JB-dgq-29-Nov-21.pdf) have previously said:

The story starts in 1982 when BP drilled a borehole on Block 112/25 off the east coast of the
Isle of Man, in what was then UK territorial waters. The name of the well is 112/25-1 – the
first well in Block 112/25. BP was hoping to find an accumulation similar to one of the
Morecambe Bay gas fields, in Triassic-age rocks. They did not find gas at the expected level
but there were some indications of gas at greater depth in Permian-age rocks, around 2000
metres below the seabed. These rocks have some similarities with the Peel Sandstone but
they have never produced gas in the Irish Sea. Despite their best efforts, BP was
unsuccessful in getting gas to flow to surface in 112/25-1 so they declared that the well had
failed to discover hydrocarbons.
In 1991 the Isle of Man extended its territorial sea to 12 miles by purchasing the sea bed
from the UK Government and consequently Block 112/25 became Manx. In a subsequent
Isle of Man licence round held in 2017-2018, local company Crogga Limited bid for an
exploration licence and was awarded the block based on a proposal to carry out evaluation
work, including a seismic survey. The seismic survey has yet to be acquired and the licence
is now up for renegotiation.
So what if there is a significant gas accumulation? “First it will require more exploration – a
3D seismic survey, then one or probably two exploration wells to test whether there is
enough gas and whether it will flow to surface at the rate required to be a commercial
proposition. In the case where the results are positive, it will then take several years to
develop the field by drilling boreholes and building production facilities such as a platform
and pipelines. This takes us to around 2030, by which time it is hard to predict how carbon
taxes on fossil fuels will affect the economics.”

Test drilling without a proper survey could - it seems - result in unnecessary wells being drilled in the wrong place (+ any associated environmental impact), which the license is designed to avoid. Are we a UNESCO Biosphere or not?

[Banker]

3 minutes ago, Nish as reesht said:

taking back control' seems to be in essence all about him wanting to progress Crogga gas exploration without the currently mandated checks for the protection of the environment.

According to Gef (https://gef.im/news/politics/cannan-to-rule-on-crogga-licence-37633/), CT wanted to stick to the license conditions granted to Crogga, but the company wanted to amend it. It seems Alf wants to vary the license despite the Government and its professionally-hired consultants / advisers (and the former minister CT) recommending sticking to the original terms (according to CT in Tynwald today)

Exactly which was has been mentioned by several as the reason for his sacking, he wanted to stick to agreements and Alf wants the drilling to start! conveniently done whilst Tynwald in recess so no questions until October when presumably Alf will have signed off relevant documents 

[Two-lane]

17 minutes ago, Nish as reesht said:

So, Crogga want to do exploratory drilling before doing a full 3D seismic survey. It seems to me a case of business interests trumping due process.

What is the reason Crogga wants to drill without a seismic survey? I assume, from the text above, that they would just be taking a guess at where to drill - and drilling in the wrong place costs money.

[Andy Onchan]

14 minutes ago, Nish as reesht said:

Alf 'taking back control' seems to be in essence all about him wanting to progress Crogga gas exploration without the currently mandated checks for the protection of the environment.

According to Gef (https://gef.im/news/politics/cannan-to-rule-on-crogga-licence-37633/), CT wanted to stick to the license conditions granted to Crogga, but the company wanted to amend it. It seems Alf wants to vary the license despite the Government and its professionally-hired consultants / advisers (and the former minister CT) recommending sticking to the original terms (according to CT in Tynwald today). Says Gef:

"In essence, the issue is surrounding Crogga’s’ bid to alter the terms of the licence which required 3D seismic surveys to be completed before drilling could commence. The company’s CEO Richard Hubbard has claimed this is not necessary and that Crogga’s plans should be allowed to continue to the next phase."

So, Crogga want to do exploratory drilling before doing a full 3D seismic survey. It seems to me a case of business interests trumping due process.

The Manx Geological Survey (https://www.manxgeology.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Crogga-112-25-technical-summary-for-publication-JB-dgq-29-Nov-21.pdf) have previously said:

The story starts in 1982 when BP drilled a borehole on Block 112/25 off the east coast of the
Isle of Man, in what was then UK territorial waters. The name of the well is 112/25-1 – the
first well in Block 112/25. BP was hoping to find an accumulation similar to one of the
Morecambe Bay gas fields, in Triassic-age rocks. They did not find gas at the expected level
but there were some indications of gas at greater depth in Permian-age rocks, around 2000
metres below the seabed. These rocks have some similarities with the Peel Sandstone but
they have never produced gas in the Irish Sea. Despite their best efforts, BP was
unsuccessful in getting gas to flow to surface in 112/25-1 so they declared that the well had
failed to discover hydrocarbons.
In 1991 the Isle of Man extended its territorial sea to 12 miles by purchasing the sea bed
from the UK Government and consequently Block 112/25 became Manx. In a subsequent
Isle of Man licence round held in 2017-2018, local company Crogga Limited bid for an
exploration licence and was awarded the block based on a proposal to carry out evaluation
work, including a seismic survey. The seismic survey has yet to be acquired and the licence
is now up for renegotiation.
So what if there is a significant gas accumulation? “First it will require more exploration – a
3D seismic survey, then one or probably two exploration wells to test whether there is
enough gas and whether it will flow to surface at the rate required to be a commercial
proposition. In the case where the results are positive, it will then take several years to
develop the field by drilling boreholes and building production facilities such as a platform
and pipelines. This takes us to around 2030, by which time it is hard to predict how carbon
taxes on fossil fuels will affect the economics.”

Test drilling without a proper survey could - it seems - result in unnecessary wells being drilled in the wrong place (+ any associated environmental impact), which the license is designed to avoid. Are we a UNESCO Biosphere or not?

There are plenty of examples around the world where 3D is bypassed and test wells are drilled. It's not unusual. 3D won't necessarily tell what the flow rate is (or example) and that's key metric for deciding whether to proceed any further or not.

[offshoremanxman]

Just now, Andy Onchan said:

There are plenty of examples around the world where 3D is bypassed and test wells are drilled. It's not unusual. 3D won't necessarily tell what the flow rate is (or example) and that's key metric for deciding whether to proceed any further or not.

They just need to get drilling. It’s at the cost of the investors and if they find nothing we’ve basically not lost anything. It’s amazing how the eco idiot lobby has been so effective so far in stopping us potentially actually finding something that might replace the income lost from the finance sector and other areas of the economy over the next 10 years. If this is the reason I feel sorry for Thomas but someone needed to grip it. 

[asitis]

Reading the story of Crogga above, it is so symptomatic of many lost opportunities here, where investors and entrepreneurs have been worn down and sent away by politics and bureaucracy !. That is not to say I fall on either side of the argument for or against Crogga, or for or against due caution from an environmental point of view, I know too little of this particular debate. It is sad however that it is a similar tale repeated many times, where decisions are strung out and not made, or made in such a way that to continue for any business would be folly. Something depressingly similar I do know about, is the amount of investment that has been proposed over the past twenty odd years at the airport where time after time wealthy people have been turned away who wanted to invest and improve the place but couldn't find a way around the bureaucrats to enable things to happen.

Again not in reference particularly to Crogga,  we cannot continue to shun opportunity for private people to improve things because as sure as hell our Government aren't doing it !

 

 

[NoTailT]

31 minutes ago, asitis said:

Reading the story of Crogga above, it is so symptomatic of many lost opportunities here, where investors and entrepreneurs have been worn down and sent away by politics and bureaucracy !. That is not to say I fall on either side of the argument for or against Crogga, or for or against due caution from an environmental point of view, I know too little of this particular debate. It is sad however that it is a similar tale repeated many times, where decisions are strung out and not made, or made in such a way that to continue for any business would be folly. Something depressingly similar I do know about, is the amount of investment that has been proposed over the past twenty odd years at the airport where time after time wealthy people have been turned away who wanted to invest and improve the place but couldn't find a way around the bureaucrats to enable things to happen.

Again not in reference particularly to Crogga,  we cannot continue to shun opportunity for private people to improve things because as sure as hell our Government aren't doing it !

 

 

I think ultimately Alf knows there's a shit show in government and its coffers. This presents a potential massive contributor to the economy, so it needs at least exploring.

[Hmmmm]

2 hours ago, Andy Onchan said:

There are plenty of examples around the world where 3D is bypassed and test wells are drilled. It's not unusual. 3D won't necessarily tell what the flow rate is (or example) and that's key metric for deciding whether to proceed any further or not.

Yes, depending on the jurisdiction, which will determine the conditions of the license and drill pre-requirements. The IOM needs to decide what the stipulations are and in doing so be cognizant of environmental and good practice considerations  from the adjacent isle.

[english zloty]

28 minutes ago, NoTailT said:

I think ultimately Alf knows there's a shit show in government and its coffers. This presents a potential massive contributor to the economy, so it needs at least exploring.

This ^^^ but is fairly much the only plan. 

[Kopek]

Surely the time for Crogga was 30 years ago???

I know not all gas appliances are going to be switched off in 2030 or even 2050 but the market will be dwindling long before that?

New builds from '25 will be unlikely to have gas boilers. Of course the Isle of Man could always buck the climate control World view and allow them!!!

[Kopek]

4 hours ago, Mann O Mann said:

CT is a descent bloke

He's certainly on that slope now!!!

[Johnny F]

I worked offshore in the oil and gas industry for 15 years, the last few spent actually drilling gas wells in Sharja UAE, in a joint venture between the Sharjan (government) and BP. In an area already known for its vast reserves of gas we struggled and the budget for three wells was spent on the first well ! This is the sort of thing that can happen whilst drilling "wildcat" wells. The potential to rapidly lose money speculating is extremely high.

The most important thing the Manx government could do in this situation with Crogga is to insist they always have enough money in reserve to pay for the clean up operation if it all goes tits up, otherwise the Manx taxpayer will have to foot the potentially enormous bill.

The gold standard in modern times is a 3D seismic survey, this is not 1x better than a 2D survey it is light years ahead and costs a fortune. A 3D survey is not essential but not having one shows you are either supremely confident about what's down there OR you have another reason, I suspect that Crogga can't afford it. If Crogga can't get enough money together to do a 3D survey then I severely doubt they will have enough money in reserve to pay for a clean up if the well turns out to be a duster! It looks like a cheapskate amateur operation to me.  But what do I know. 

Oh and while I'm ranting lets not forget the potential for some kind of catastrophic disaster off our coast, Piper Alpha, and Deepwater Horizon happened just before and during my time offshore. 

[NoTailT]

5 minutes ago, Johnny F said:

I worked offshore in the oil and gas industry for 15 years, the last few spent actually drilling gas wells in Sharja UAE, in a joint venture between the Sharjan (government) and BP. In an area already known for its vast reserves of gas we struggled and the budget for three wells was spent on the first well ! This is the sort of thing that can happen whilst drilling "wildcat" wells. The potential to rapidly lose money speculating is extremely high.

The most important thing the Manx government could do in this situation with Crogga is to insist they always have enough money in reserve to pay for the clean up operation if it all goes tits up, otherwise the Manx taxpayer will have to foot the potentially enormous bill.

The gold standard in modern times is a 3D seismic survey, this is not 1x better than a 2D survey it is light years ahead and costs a fortune. A 3D survey is not essential but not having one shows you are either supremely confident about what's down there OR you have another reason, I suspect that Crogga can't afford it. If Crogga can't get enough money together to do a 3D survey then I severely doubt they will have enough money in reserve to pay for a clean up if the well turns out to be a duster! It looks like a cheapskate amateur operation to me.  But what do I know. 

Oh and while I'm ranting lets not forget the potential for some kind of catastrophic disaster off our coast, Piper Alpha, and Deepwater Horizon happened just before and during my time offshore. 

From what I hear, lack of funds to do the seismic is accurate.