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We are running out of kids?


Max Power

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2 minutes ago, woolley said:

You don't know what you are pontificating about. This is the case in the UK. Not so in the Isle of Man. There is this thing called the National Insurance Fund that people have all been paying contributions into very handsomely for their whole working lives, so yes, we are going to have our pensions thank you very much, and the Fund must not be frittered away on yet more government flights of fancy. The carried forward amount balance in 2023 was £837 million.

https://www.gov.im/categories/tax-vat-and-your-money/income-tax-and-national-insurance/national-insurance-contributions/manx-national-insurance-fund/

Methinks you are living in cloud cuckoo land. The government pension payments are running out so where do you think they are going to top this up from?

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4 minutes ago, woolley said:

National Insurance Fund that people have all been paying contributions into very handsomely for their whole working lives, so yes, we are going to have our pensions thank you very much

Until the pensionable age becomes 90,then a few might miss out.

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10 minutes ago, woolley said:

You don't know what you are pontificating about. This is the case in the UK. Not so in the Isle of Man. There is this thing called the National Insurance Fund that people have all been paying contributions into very handsomely for their whole working lives, so yes, we are going to have our pensions thank you very much, and the Fund must not be frittered away on yet more government flights of fancy. The carried forward amount balance in 2023 was £837 million.

https://www.gov.im/categories/tax-vat-and-your-money/income-tax-and-national-insurance/national-insurance-contributions/manx-national-insurance-fund/

20,000 pensioners at £10k pa and a £840m fund means about 4 years worth of payments. So hardly a fully funded nest egg, and it relies on current payers to support it. The only difference to UK is a small buffer 

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2 minutes ago, Mercenary said:

20,000 pensioners at £10k pa and a £840m fund means about 4 years worth of payments. So hardly a fully funded nest egg, and it relies on current payers to support it. The only difference to UK is a small buffer 

This supposes nothing further is paid into it. Most businesses and organisations would have cash flow problems within weeks if their outgoings were not supported by income, let alone 4 years.

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9 hours ago, woolley said:

This supposes nothing further is paid into it. Most businesses and organisations would have cash flow problems within weeks if their outgoings were not supported by income, let alone 4 years.

Well that's my point and is the difference between state pensions where new contributors are paying for retirees and a paid up pot (which you were inferring) 

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10 hours ago, woolley said:

You don't know what you are pontificating about. This is the case in the UK. Not so in the Isle of Man. There is this thing called the National Insurance Fund that people have all been paying contributions into very handsomely for their whole working lives, so yes, we are going to have our pensions thank you very much, and the Fund must not be frittered away on yet more government flights of fancy. The carried forward amount balance in 2023 was £837 million.

https://www.gov.im/categories/tax-vat-and-your-money/income-tax-and-national-insurance/national-insurance-contributions/manx-national-insurance-fund/

The National Insurance Scheme is surely one of the biggest pyramid schemes going... if it was sold to customers by a financial institution it would be shut down for being a scam. 

The NI fund is forecast to run dry by the mid-2040's even it it continues to be funded. 

As others have alluded to on the forums, there's some really hard choices coming in the next 10 years or so (maybe sooner). Driven not by political choice but but financial realities. 

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They'll continue to put up the pension age, it's very simple. They got away with it last time - next time and the next and the next will be easier and easier as it becomes increasingly normalised. There were riots in France when they tried the same thing.

That's the trouble with having a nation (and an island) of Tories - the people who rely on their state pension to live have nobody to speak for them.

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7 hours ago, Mercenary said:

Well that's my point and is the difference between state pensions where new contributors are paying for retirees and a paid up pot (which you were inferring) 

I didn't infer that at all. You might have done.

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22 hours ago, Zarley said:

The one child policy ended in 2015, so that means people who are currently of child-bearing age are still from the one child era. It was fairly well known that many Chinese couples chose to abort (or even abandon) female offspring in favour of a sought-after son, resulting in a skewed ratio of far more boys than girls being born. 

I have to wonder if this is a large part of what's behind their falling birth rate. You need women to have babies and China probably just doesn't have enough women to keep the rate stable at this point in time, particularly when you add in all the other problems like cost of living. Maybe that will start to change in a dozen or so years, when the effect of a rebalanced ratio can be felt. 

Actually it's already changing - and may always been exaggerated a bit anyway.  Some of the discrepancy turned out to be due to (very) late registration of female births rather than selective abortion.  The sex ratio in China in 2022, by age group (female = 100) is:

image.png.5bb83bc7d73aada05f22bd1c28537d10.png

as you can see the percentage was dropping anyway.  And of course fewer female children being born wouldn't in itself stop those who were having more children when they were old enough.  The main drivers for low birth rate seem to be the same as they are in most other countries.

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