The General Election in the United Kingdom

[Declan]

1 hour ago, P.K. said:

@Declan

So what is your explanation for the considerable shift from Conservative to Reform UK?

Please don't try it on with "protest vote against the establishment" because if it was I would expect more Labour losses which simply didn't happen.

The Brexit Party didn't stand against Brexit supporting Tory MPs in 2019.

On top of that the Tory Government had been incompetant and venial over the previous term. I know they always are, but even Tory voters couldn't ignore it this time. So the centerists went to Lib or Lab and the right went to Reform.

Edited July 7 by Declan

[P.K.]

9 hours ago, Declan said:

The Brexit Party didn't stand against Brexit supporting Tory MPs in 2019.

On top of that the Tory Government had been incompetant and venial over the previous term. I know they always are, but even Tory voters couldn't ignore it this time. So the centerists went to Lib or Lab and the right went to Reform.

I personally think the tories moved further to the right with the likes of Braverman & co, hence the ridiculous "conscription" nonsense, and in doing so surrendered the centre ground to Labour and the LibDems. Hence the result for Starmer. Their choice of new leader will be interesting because I suspect it will indicate more moving rightwards.

I don't agree with your explanation of where the tory voters went and why. Because they certainly didn't go to Labour!

In 2019 avid Brexiteer Lee 30p Anderson polled 19,200 votes for the tories with Ashfield Independent getting 13,500 votes Labour on 12,000 and the Brexit lot getting 2,500.

In 2024 30p Lee polled 17,000 votes for Reform with Labour staying static at 12,000 Ashfield Independent on 6,000 and the tories crashed to 3,000. That's 9000 votes gone AWOL!

After 14 years of lies, corruption and chaos you're right that in 2024 simply not being a tory was enough to make you electable. But tories actually believe the nonsense printed in the UK right wing press and for many the idea of voting Labour is an anathema that goes against everything they believe in. But the obvious home for their votes in this case, Ashfield Independent, actually lost over half of their voters! I suspect a lot simply chose not to vote at all...

Despite the clown show the LibDems ran a very clever campaign by targetting what they thought were winnable seats so they threw in lots of resources to gain them.  A strategy that worked really well.

Interesting times ahead.

Edited July 8 by P.K.
Typo

[wrighty]

14 hours ago, Declan said:

Nonesense. The party name is on the ballot. 

 

You mean like 'Labour' or 'Independent Labour'. Or 'People's Judean Front' vs 'Popular Front of Judea' vs 'Popular People's Front of Judea' (splitters!) - something like that?

[Non-Believer]

[RecklessAbandon]

1 hour ago, Non-Believer said:

I always thought he was more a Victorian ghost than a vampire as I'm sure I've seen him outdoors in sunlight, but then SPF science has progressed leaps and bounds this day.

[Declan]

6 hours ago, wrighty said:

You mean like 'Labour' or 'Independent Labour'. Or 'People's Judean Front' vs 'Popular Front of Judea' vs 'Popular People's Front of Judea' (splitters!) - something like that?

I think the returning officer would reject anything that coud confuse the electorate. It's clear that large sections of the electorate hold Corbyn in high regard, particularly in Islington.

[Declan]

10 hours ago, P.K. said:

I personally think the tories moved further to the right with the likes of Braverman & co, hence the ridiculous "conscription" nonsense, and in doing so surrendered the centre ground to Labour and the LibDems. Hence the result for Starmer. Their choice of new leader will be interesting because I suspect it will indicate more moving rightwards.

I don't agree with your explanation of where the tory voters went and why. Because they certainly didn't go to Labour!

 

The 2019 Tory voters went in alsorts of directions. Reform obviously picked up the lions share, but many stayed at home. As you say the Tories surrendered the middle ground to the Libs and Labour and the middle ground voters (who were put off by Corbyn) voted for Lib, Lab or Green. Whoever would beat the Tories. Labours vote share went up despite losing some left wing voters.

The point I'm failiing to make very well, to Helix more than you, is people were happy to vote Lib Dem, Green, Independent, or not vote because they mildly content with Starmer being PM. Sadly those people were scared of a Corbyn government and voted Tory.

So 2017 and 2019 were about who's going to be PM and people voted Tory or Labour. 2023 people expected and weren't bothered by Starmer being PM so voted on who they wanted to be their MP.

I think the government has quite a lot more than 35% of the population's support but that support is very lukewarm. However thats an opportunity for them, they might only have a small vote share, but there's a larger pool prepared to give them a chance. All they have to turn them into voters is do a good job.

[wrighty]

3 hours ago, Declan said:

I think the returning officer would reject anything that coud confuse the electorate. It's clear that large sections of the electorate hold Corbyn in high regard, particularly in Islington.

https://labourlist.org/2024/06/jeremy-corbyn-islington-north-prank-seat/
 

You’re probably right - as the link shows returning officers don’t like cocking about with ballot papers. 

[Chinahand]

Ho hum ... what to think about the state of UK politics after this election campaign and vote?

Below is a typical TLDR post by Chinahand, and it might be only the 1st of a series!!

 

I've always been basically a liberal internationalist. I'm in awe of the huge chains of networked trust which criss-cross the globe based on 30-90 days of credit and overlapping contracts pulling in hugely diverse stakeholders to provide people everything from prawn sandwiches for their lunch, to kettles in their flat-pack kitchens, to cars and computers containing rare-earth metals and code coded anywhere from Silicon Valley to Bangalore.

The state is a vital component of these networks - underpinning contracts, providing stability both internally and internationally, and the basic infrastructure and education to allow employers and employees exchange skills for a stable currency.

The state can't keep the world out; can't demand people are paid beyond their productivity; is unlikely to make companies innovative by coddling them with subsidies or using tariffs to force their citizens to pay more for cheaper products from abroad. But politics really matters. To be parochial, Mann is far richer than Ynys Môn because we can use our tax system to attract footloose capital and ideas that would not usually end up on a wind-swept Westerly Isle. States can disrupt or encourage corruption and state capture; can stifle or encourage innovation.

All of this makes me centre right; but more a person from anywhere than from somewhere.

And that is one way into the nightmare which has just engulfed the Tories. My understanding is that all this international openness, which was the dominant political narrative from the end of the cold war in 1991 to the 2008 financial crisis, has significantly increased competition and a sense of insecurity in not only the UK, but throughout the west.

Globalisation is the free movement of ideas, capital and people and all of these have brought competition into people's lives. But my view is that the free movement of people is the most visible of these and the one citizens most expect their states to intervene in to ensure they are not adversely affected by it.

I am increasingly frustrated by the shouts that people who want immigration controls and are unhappy about its scale are all racists.

My view is that increased competition and a sense of insecurity is a very real thing; most especially after the wave of redundancies and unemployment caused as the Financial crisis merged into the Great Recession and the Euro-crisis. I'm also not surprised at all that this has resulted in people not wanting outsiders coming in, seeing their willingness to accept lower wages and undercutting the locals as being a threat.

I don't see the as racism, I see it as, in many ways, a rational reaction to an increased sense of insecurity.

Now I'm fascinated that it has been the conservative right which has understood and reacted to this. Conservative, nostalgic, people from somewhere, happy to use patriotism and jingoism to drive their political message.

The failure of the political left to provide a left wing narrative against globalisation is interesting, and probably shows the dominance of the ideology of Blair, Clinton and Macron over the likes of Corbyn and France's Melenchon who have both tried and so nearly succeeded in creating it (Corbyn with a bigger vote share than Blairite Starmer, Melanchon winning the latest French election, but without a majority).

That failure has allowed the likes of Trump and Farage to create a very powerful political brand that working class Joe has been stiffed by the global elite with the outsider blamed for undermining their security.

And it looks like this political rhetoric has successfully split the Tory party, leaving it as a rump split between a populist, xenophobic right poached by Reform and a liberal internationalist (call it European) left poached by the Liberal Democrats.

My biggest dilemma is whether they are right! 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

 

 

[wrighty]

@Chinahand I for one welcome your TLDR analyses. I’ll need to re-read it though before I can respond with sensible opinions. 

[quilp]

Great post, @Chinahand one for consideration. 

[wrighty]

Having read it twice I think you’re right. 
 

Most people will align with Blair or Cameron, I think. Centre-left or centre-right. The UK probably leans naturally right. If either of the main parties seem to be too far left/right the other gets in. But labour only gets in if they have a centrist leader. Corbyn, Kinnock, Foot (that’s as far as I go back) would have been beaten by any Tory. Blair won. Milliband might have won against a less moderate Tory than Cameron. 
 

Regarding immigration I agree. To be against illegal immigration means you’re portrayed as racist. But lots of people are racist. Even lefties. This allows Farage et al to take votes from both sides. 
 

But this election was basically a ‘get tories out’ election. People were pissed off with the covid parties, Liz Truss, gambling with inside information, Sunak not doing D-Day etc. When it was clear Starmer was getting in righties could protest against Tory excesses by voting reform, confident that Starmer was ‘right enough’. 

[manxman1980]

8 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Milliband might have won against a less moderate Tory than Cameron. 

A great example of the power that the tabloids used to hold.  I can still remember the infamous bacon sandwich picture of Milliband, yet somehow, Cameron was able to avoid the same bacon related fate.

I really think we underestimate just how much of a say the owners of the media have had on UK elections. 

[Chinahand]

That, Wrighty,  gets us into the nitty gritty of politics far closer to practical reality than my ivory tower waffle! and I totally agree with you.

Boris was a brilliant cavalier campaigner, but Covid required the puritan discipline of a roundhead, something he was entirely unsuitable to being.

While Liz Truss ... oh goodness, what can I say. Ideologically blind and tin-eared in her rush to bring in libertarian ideology in over the heads of liberal orthodox civil servants mandated to review the consequences of her policies. With terrible consequences as the markets reacted to her pushing through uncosted policies.

Indiscipline and ideology wrecked the reputation of the Tories and Sunak's orthodox neo-liberalism (very very close to my political bias) stood no chance against Reform's xenophobia blaming the outsider for ruining dear Blighty and the Liberal Democrat's Europhile logic that it is damaging to isolate yourself from your largest and nearest market.

Of the 4 segements of the Tory party one quarter split to the Lib Dems and one quarter to Reform with the result close to 50% of its vote abandoned it.

[woolley]

On 7/6/2024 at 4:02 PM, HeliX said:

Yes, that's my major objection to the Tory twat.

Maybe you'd prefer Corbyn.