Public sector want inflation busting rises again

[woolley]

Realised previous post is behind paywall.

[Meoir Shee]

46 minutes ago, woolley said:

Of course. Delighted to. Certainly, PSNB was falling year by year throughout the 2010s, and by 2019 it was substantially less than half of its level in 2010. Your graph is misleading in this context because it isn't in cash terms, just as a percentage of GDP, and also it's the cumulative total net debt. Obviously, falling borrowing is still borrowing so the total continues to increase, though not as quickly.

Borrowing flew after the 2008 financial crisis and bank bail-outs, then steadily reduced until 2019. Then there was Covid from 2020 onward so that was the end of that.

Try this:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282844/united-kingdom-uk-government-borrowing-psnb/  

If a country’s deficit is falling (and with it the annual level of borrowing), the level of national debt is still rising, therefore when Public Sector Net Borrowing falls, the UK National Debt rises.  Only when PSNB is negative does national debt fall.  I cannot access your quoted chart but would assume that all the figures are positive, resulting in annual borrowing and increased levels of debt.

Debt as a percentage of GDP is the widely used measure of National Debt  as per the OECD.

The chart below, from the OBR shows that National Debt relative to GDP and in cash terms accelerated dramatically post 2010.

Therefore, during the period widely known as “Austerity”, the UK National Debt, using the internationally accepted measure, increased significantly.  Using the alternative ‘Cash Terms’ measure, it also appears to have increased significantly.

Edited August 23 by Meoir Shee
Chart error

[woolley]

20 minutes ago, Meoir Shee said:

If a country’s deficit is falling (and with it the annual level of borrowing), the level of national debt is still rising, therefore when Public Sector Net Borrowing falls, the UK National Debt rises.  Only when PSNB is negative does national debt fall.  I cannot access your quoted chart but would assume that all the figures are positive, resulting in annual borrowing and increased levels of debt.

Debt as a percentage of GDP is the widely used measure of National Debt  as per the OECD.

The chart below, from the OBR shows that National Debt relative to GDP and in cash terms accelerated dramatically post 2010.

Therefore, during the period widely known as “Austerity”, the UK National Debt, using the internationally accepted measure, increased significantly.  Using the alternative ‘Cash Terms’ measure, it also appears to have increased significantly.

Sorry. I did realise that the graph was behind a paywall and I posted it separately afterwards.

Yes, of course, but you were never going to go from the levels of borrowing in 2010 to negative borrowing, i.e. paying down of debt. That would be in the realms of a miracle. So yes, the debt continued to compound and grow, but the borrowing fuelling it by 2019 was substantially less than half of the level in 2010, so that's why your original graph is misleading in this context. I suppose I'd sum it up by saying you have to start somewhere. Debt was still rising, BUT government borrowing was falling - a lot. 

@Harry Lamb set this particular hare running by claiming that the previous government borrowed more than any other "to line the pockets of their own supporters". If they did so, they were doing it while also slashing the amount borrowed as the decade passed by.

Edited August 23 by woolley

[Meoir Shee]

Perhaps the more important conclusion is that the ideology of “Austerity” to correct the government’s finances, resulting in a decade of cuts to public services was, with the benefit of hindsight, ineffective relative to its headline objective.  I think @Harry Lamb is perhaps concerned as to where all the money has gone?  The tax take is higher than for decades, the National Debt higher than since WW2 but there appears to be no money for anything.  The fiscal responsibility of the previous UK government, Covid aside, is highly questionable.

Edited August 23 by Meoir Shee
Typo

[Harry Lamb]

The Tories response to the financial crisis was 'austerity' which penalised working people for the excesses of bankers and spivs. Instead of going for those responsible they closed public libraries, cut police numbers, devastated social care and set up local authorities for bankruptcy. While all this was happening, national debt was rising spectacularly and yet huge sums of public money were directed to Tory party donors. This strategy was not only unfair and cruel, it was also singularly unsuccessful. To disguise their failure they whipped up xenophobia and demonised refugees, deflecting the blame for their shortcomings onto the vulnerable, and manufactured culture wars to further divide and conquer. Other than that, they were a great success.

[Mercenary]

5 hours ago, Meoir Shee said:

Perhaps the more important conclusion is that the ideology of “Austerity” to correct the government’s finances, resulting in a decade of cuts to public services was, with the benefit of hindsight, ineffective relative to its headline objective.  I think @Harry Lamb is perhaps concerned as to where all the money has gone?  The tax take is higher than for decades, the National Debt higher than since WW2 but there appears to be no money for anything.  The fiscal responsibility of the previous UK government, Covid aside, is highly questionable.

Pensions/welfare & NHS (baumol disease) causing rising taxes and chronic underinvestment 

[english zloty]

Scotland to cut the size of its civil service. Hint hint.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2y1e4jpz3o

[Non-Believer]

41 minutes ago, english zloty said:

Scotland to cut the size of its civil service. Hint hint.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2y1e4jpz3o

Their Govt clearly has the gonads to do it as it becomes necessary.

And don't miss.....£460M raised from allocation of seabed plots to be redirected. Vs our £5M 🤭

[Non-Believer]

Duplicate.

Edited September 3 by Non-Believer

[Banker]

Kate has spoken! Some very valid points, unions weren’t demanding parity with Uk last 2 years when they got more here!!

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/pay-demands-from-unions-neither-reasonable-or-acceptable/

[Gladys]

24 minutes ago, Banker said:

Kate has spoken! Some very valid points, unions weren’t demanding parity with Uk last 2 years when they got more here!!

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/pay-demands-from-unions-neither-reasonable-or-acceptable/

Yes, but she wouldn't commit to coming back on MR once a settlement is reached, citing that there was plenty of public info on pay structures and settlement and, in any case, this was all about people's salaries and should not be a matter for public debate.  Not sure that is an acceptable or valid position to take. 

[2112]

I see KLB has been spouting on the NPM how discussing public sector pay deals in public is not good or conducive, and people have a right to keep their salaries private. Wrong KLB! The public and taxpayers in turn have every right with openness and transparency being practiced. Individual salaries are kept private, but pay structures and salary bands relating to the job should be freely accessible. Why the secrecy?
 

PSC chair says people have a right to keep their salaries private

The chair of the Public Services Commission says she doesn't think it's helpful to discuss pay deals publicly.

It's as the PSC and Prospect and Unite unions continue lengthy discussions in a dispute over pay.

There have been calls for 'sliding scales' to be introduced, seeing those on more money getting a smaller salary increase compared to those getting less.

You can find out more HERE.

But Kate Lord-Brennan says it's not right to be discussing people's salaries publicly:

 

Edited September 8 by 2112

[Non-Believer]

She actually means that it's not convenient from an embarrassment point of view to see how easily Govt caves in to PS pressure and also just how obscene some PS salaries actually are when they become public knowledge. 

[Gladys]

I raised this on the day the interview was broadcast.  We are not talking about individuals' salaries, which should not be disclosed other than in the various reports where they are to a great degree anonymised, but the overall bill. 

More concerning is that MR had asked 15 times, IIRC, about the negotiations with no answer and she would not commit to returning once the negotiations were settled. 

[StCatherine]

I think she is just worried that the bumper pay rises gifted to the airport firefighters behind closed doors (on her watch) will get out in the public domain and ruin the hardball negotiating stance with the wider psc. 

Edited September 8 by StCatherine